With the new information and developments of the last two weeks it's time to update my own private threat assessment of the high-threat high-danger areas for Islamic attack in North America. See /maguire/wto.htm for my previous September 13, 2001 assessment. This updated threat assessment is based on the following public domain source factors.
Threat Factors.
1, bin Laden/Al-Qaeda's publicly announced war goals and targeting strategy.
2. North American demographic considerations based on #1.
3. Publicly proven Islamic interest in and physical attempts to purchase a bio-chemical agent delivery system ("crop duster airplanes") and also train personnel in these aircraft.
4. The U.S. Government's continuing failure to ground all civil general aviation (excluding Part 121 airlines) in the United States, place all civil aircraft under guard and block airport runways. The incompetent response to the crop duster revelations was a mere two day bureaucratic fiat to 'ground' crop dusting aircraft. This was done by edict on the same basis as gun control and depended completely on voluntary compliance with the law. Attorney General Ashcroft has since discontinued this and advised local police to "be on the lookout" for anything suspicious relating to crop dusting aircraft. The results will probably be similar to when the Minnesota flight school that was also "on the lookout" warned the FBI before September 11 that Islamics wanted suspicious flight training in jumbo jet simulators. The FBI did nothing effective after receiving this intelligence.
Half-measures thus continue to rule. Crop duster aircraft are merely specially designed to obtain maximum economic (and accurate) application of pesticides at below-treetop level in a safe slow flight profile. They have to combine the qualities of acrobatic aircraft with high usable payloads. Hundreds of thousands of other civil aircraft could be easily modified to disperse toxic biological or chemical agents from 200 feet in straight and level flight.
5. The U.S. Government's publicly advertised form of military response.
6. The U.S. Government's refusal to intern all enemy aliens or even those enemy aliens meeting the profiles of the WTC attackers. The U.S. Supreme Court decided in 1945 in connection with the Japanese internments that such preventative custody is completely Constitutional as a wartime security measure. The current Washington government instead continues to shape its policies for theatrical effects in the media, the mass public mind and to pander to narrow sectarian interests. Additional considerations include Colin Powell calculations designed to recruit Islamic states for a multi-cultural 'War On Terrorism'. Much of this strategy involves pretending the struggle is not what bin Laden says it is. Part of trying to redefine the war as not being Judeo-Goy ('Christian') vs Islamics means allowing free rein to Islamics inside the late great USA. Regardless of the rationales, the government is clearly not acting decisively to meet the near certain domestic physical threat of bio-chemical weapons of mass destruction.
White evacuation zones must now be expanded to include:
1. The coastal urban corridor
defined by Boston Massachusetts --- Richmond Virginia.
2. The coastal urban corridor
defined by Jupiter Inlet, Florida in the north to Florida City, Florida
on Florida's Atlantic Coast. This includes all of Palm Beach, Broward
and Dade counties.
3. Metropolitan Tampa, Florida
and the surrounding Tampa Bay area. Both US Central Command and US
Special Operations Command are headquartered at MacDill Air Force Base
on a peninsula in the center of this area. These two commands are
the 'warfighting' headquarters for the impending actions in Afghanistan
and possibly elsewhere in the Middle East. They are also the control
centers for US forces stationed in the Persian Gulf area. Removal
of US military forces from Southwest Asia, which forces are directly controlled
by these two headquarters, is one of bin Laden's publicly announced war
goals.
4. Metropolitan Atlanta.
US Army Forces Command is headquartered there along with a sizable Jewish
community.
5. Metropolitan Chicago.
6. All California urban coastal
regions from San Diego to San Francisco Bay.
The danger of attacks in other areas has also increased. In my opinion attacks in such areas are more likely to be pinpoint attacks against high value economic targets,. The threat of attacks of mass destruction are lower in these areas but do exist.
Threat Profile Evaluation
1. Ex-Soviet nuclear bombs. Probability: LOW.
Commentary. The genesis of the re-circulating ex-Soviet 'suitcase nukes' tale is revealed in this Federation of American Scientists' analysis of the sources: http://www.fas.org/nuke/hew/News/Lebedbomb.html . The primary sources were Jewish media and include CBS News, CBS News 60 Minutes producers with personal vested economic interests in promoting this tale, Stephen Spielberg's Dreamworks-SKS which then had a topically related movie in release and an ex-advisor of Yeltsin's Jewish government, Major General Alexander Lebed.
Even if this tale is completely true the weapons yield cited, 1 kiloton, is only 5% of the approximately 20 kiloton Hiroshima/Nagasaki weapons. The remainder of the FAS article discussing low yield nukes is very informative and worth reading. All of these weapons still require the resources of a government to produce. The results of a low yield nuclear bomb might be 4-5 times more spectacular than the WTC. Or it could be less effective depending on the locale. There have been larger conventional explosions in North American munitions ports during FWATKWP and SWATKWP. The targets for such nuclear devices were already discussed above.
2. Induced Nuclear Power Plant Reactor Meltdown. Probability: MEDIUM-HIGH.
A more spectacularly dangerous nuclear terrorism event would be a 30-40 man assault team gaining control of a nuclear reactor and inducing a meltdown after breaching the steel containment vessel and concrete dome with shaped charges. Remember, their 'escape plan' is to escape into Paradise. This event would release far more radiation than a low yield nuclear weapon. While U.S. reactors have gotten much safer their safety systems are directed against human error and equipment failure, not intentional sabotage. Protections against intentional sabotage depend primarily on PERSONNEL RELIABILITY PROGRAMS designed to screen out untrustworthy personnel. These have already been greatly weakened by the Judeo-Marxist regime of diversity and equal opportunity. Parts of the Ukraine are still uninhabitable following the Chernobyl meltdown.
I have asked qualified experts to assess this danger. I was snidely told 'nuclear plants can't explode like bombs', which I already knew. I asked why they couldn't be intentionally sabotaged to meltdown completely like Three Mile Island did accidentally and partially, with the added features of containment vessel and containment dome breaches to spread radiation. (see Three Mile Island case history here: http://www.nrc.gov/OPA/gmo/tip/tmi.htm ) Silence from Qualified Experts. These people also have vested interests in promoting more plants and are sensitive to p.r. concerns.
The attack profile is a 30-40 man assault platoon with attached combat engineer squad, all of whom are willing to die carrying out their mission. The Islamics have already generated this number of attackers for 911. They may or may not require inside assistance to prevent reactor shutdown prior to securing the control room. Bin Laden is known to have had enough training facilities, time and personnel to prepare such an attack. Public tours of many nuclear power plants were only recently discontinued. Such hypothetical attackers have therefore had years to prepare such an assault and conduct on-site pre-strike reconnaissance. Existing plant security plans must be assumed to be compromised.
Effective security measures must be capable of PHYSICALLY DESTROYING such an assault. If the standard is merely to delay for some period, a local reaction force capable of defeating such a military assault has to be available, fully trained and briefed. The recent performance of the sheriff's SWAT team at Columbine High School does not inspire me with confidence in paper plans relying on local police response. An additional factor working in favor of an attack is the contradiction of peace-time law enforcement procedures when dealing with war-time infantry tactics. Security plans based on deterrence, delay and local/regional police response also have a now obsolete planning assumption. This is the assumption an attack force desires to survive the mission and can be therefore be scared away simply by raising the physical stakes.
Pending a complete reorganization of plant security, including the construction of permanent fortifications, prudence dictates each of these complexes be defended by a dug-in infantry battalion ready to defeat an infantry sapper attack. Currently the same federal government and personnel charged with preventing the September 11 attacks remain responsible for nuclear plant security supervision and pre-empting attacks there. The real probability is difficult to assess. Because of the long term potentials and bin Laden's more than adequate physical infrastructure and preparation time, this threat has to be rated as HIGH. State governors with their Army National Guard forces therefore should take the lead in protecting the "life, liberty and pursuit of happiness" of their citizens. 'Dug-in' means fully entrenched in bunkers with overhead cover, full war loads of ammunition issued to all troops (sorry, no locked containers ala Pearl Harbor because your troops are undisciplined), interlocking FINAL PROTECTIVE FIRES, an operating aggressive patrol plan and on-call helicopter gunship support (10 minutes alert is adequate here). This one has to be FAIL-SAFE.
3. Chemical Weapons Attack. Probability: HIGH.
Commentary. Home-made Sarin has already been used in the Tokyo subway system by another religious cult with far fewer resources than the Islamic insurgency. In addition to homebrew sarin and tabun there is the extremely high risk of ex-Soviet chemical nerve agents. The U.S.S.R. manufactured hundreds of thousands of tons of these munitions, much of which is still in existence and none of which are safe-guarded as closely as nuclear devices. While not as media sensational 'suitcase nuclear bombs' a well deployed effort could be just as lethal. A number of Islamic states also have had active chemical weapons programs. Islamic sympathizers in these programs could also provide usable quantities of chemical nerve agent.
Older chemical agents such as mustard, blood and chlorine agents require large quantities to be effective and wide area delivery by multiple rocket and artillery units or military air bombing for effective deployment. Sabotage of chlorine tank cars on railroads and highways is a greater threat, as Attorney General Ashcroft just announced.
4. Bio-weapons. Probability: HIGH
Commentary. The World Health Organization just released a 'germ warfare' warning to world governments. The threats of smallpox, anthrax and other agents are real and near. If Islamics use such weaponry outbreaks will likely appear in multiple nodes at the same time, thus defeating quarantine efforts. Major transportation hubs such as the unsecured lobby and check-in areas of airport terminals are the most likely dispersal points.
5. Other point attacks. Probability: HIGH
Commentary. Other possibilities for single man and small group suicide terror attacks are nearly endless. These include proven standbys like sniper events during rush hours and human bombs in shopping malls. Non-suicidal guerrilla warfare methods used elsewhere include proven tactics like car and truck bombs, parcel bombs, a campaign with small anti-tank rockets against liquid oxygen and gasoline road/rail transports, small anti-personnel landmines laid in public parks, etc. etc. Islamics like bin Laden have proclaimed open season on American civilians as well as military personnel. As I previously mentioned, revenge attacks by previously 'loyal' immigrant Islamics are likely as soon as some of their relatives back home are killed in Judeo-American and Zionist attacks.
Unfortunately your government remains paralyzed by influential alien elites seeking their own selfish sectarian interests irrespective of the consequences suffered by other Americans. It also remains hypnotized by its own suicidal religious cult of Judeo-Marxist racial-religious-cultural 'Diversity'. Despite the President's bold words of "war" he will continue to refuse to use the proven Constitutional measure of war-time internment of all enemy aliens.
Conclusion.
For all the above reasons I have expanded the high threat areas from the previous September 13 analysis. In conducting your own evacuation follow the President's physical example and path on September 11. Permanently relocate into the heartland of America. I define this area as lying between and including the Appalachian and Rocky Mountain continental mountain chains.
"Maguire"