A F.A.E.M. Special Report
After some last minute haggling, President Putin has committed the Russian Federation to Bush's 'anti-terrorist' war. This is now public knowledge in ZOG-USA. I had previously evaluated this event as a certainty 11 days ago, well prior to the official announcements. See maguire/mondmorn.htm of September 17, 2001. I based that assessment then on three factors:
1) The visit of the Russian Army Chief of Staff to Tajikistan reportedly to meet officials of the Afghan Northern Alliance.
2) The concurrent and dramatic escalation in Afghan Northern Alliance operations and particularly the huge increase in Northern Alliance use of artillery and rockets.
3) No combat commander will fire away his combat 'consumables' without an assured resupply unless he is surrounded and in immediate danger of being overrun. The Northern Alliance was not surrounded earlier this month or in danger of being overrun.
The obvious deduction was that Moscow had guaranteed to resupply ammunition used in any offensives. Since this time we have seen the Northern Alliance advance rapidly and President Putin come to an agreement with Bush concerning the terms of Russian participation and also USA usage of Central Asian air bases.
Russian language reports received yesterday now indicate the anticipated scope of this war may be far larger than the ZOG-USA government is currently admitting. The Russian language press agency INTERFAX reported (September 27, 2001) on an alleged agreement just reached between the Moscow Special Region Vice Mayor, Ljudmila Shvecova and General Viktor Beznosikov of the Ministry of Defense conscription agency. This agreement specifies that all young men conscripted for the Army from the Moscow Special Region will only be assigned to 'normal duties' and will not be sent into active war zones.
ANALYSIS.
1. The Moscow Special Region is analogous to the District of Columbia in the U.S.A. The Moscow Special Region mob, like the Parisian mob of old, was one of two primary agents that destroyed the old U.S.S.R. government of Mikhail Gorbachev in 1991. Subsequent Russian governments learned this lesson well and have been exceptionally careful to keep the capital city 'mob' pacified with much higher national average living conditions and wages.
2. Such a conscription agreement now between the central government and Moscow Special Region is a strong indicator the Russian central government considers heavy casualties possible among conscript soldiers in regular units as well as in the volunteer Spetsnaz elite. As Americans are now well aware following Vietnam, heavy casualties among draftees can produce serious social and political upheaval. By immunizing the Moscow Special Region from "sharing the national pain" the central government is seeking to secure its own geographical position in the event of heavy casualties occurring in the Russian Army.
Where could these casualties occur? Possibilities include:
--- A new offensive in Chechenya.
--- A Russian Army conventional force incursion into northern Afghanistan to secure forward bases for multi-national special forces to operate out from.
--- Possible insurgency outbreaks sympathetic to bin Laden and al-Qaeda among Russian Islamics and/or those of the Central States of the former U.S.S.R. These include the Afghan border states of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistanand Kirgyzstan and Khazakhstan just to the north of that region.
--- Combinations of the above.
CONCLUSION.
By entering into this special agreement on conscription in the Moscow Special Region the Russian central government is signaling that it considers widespread conventional force engagements very possible in the near future. This agreement is provoking a firestorm of anger among non-Moscow Russians. The central government clearly considers that reaction the lesser of two evils when compared to a possible future re-radicalization of the Moscow Mob. In recent decades military casualties have been as politically destabilizing in Russia as they were in the U.S.A. in the 1960s. Because of this Russian governments are unwilling to face heavy casualties except in the event of other clear and present dangers to the country and/or regime. The 'Conscription Agreement' is very likely an indicator that the anticipated casualties will not be incurred in a 'popular' war in defense of Russia itself. This is a further clue to the probable zones of operation.